Transactions on Transport Sciences 2011, 4(4):199-206 | DOI: 10.2478/v10158-011-0018-4
Estimation of Accident Frequency at Newly-built Roundabouts in the Czech Republic
- Transport Research Centre, Brno, Czech Republic
Roundabouts have become one of the most popular traffic easing and safety improving measures implemented on roads in the Czech Republic. The decision on he ealization of each new roundabout should be based on the knowledge of the expected realization costs and benefits resulting from the future operation, especially changes in traffic and safety performance. This study introduces a negative binomial regression model that enables the quantification of the safety performance of roundabouts in terms of accident frequency in relation to their traffic and geometric characteristics. Model design and estimation of parameters is based on the sample of 90 roundabouts situated on all types of roads in the Czech Republic. Results suggest that the number of accidents depends on the number of lanes on entering arms, vehicle speed in the vicinity of roundabouts, width of traversable apron and, of course, also on the annual average daily traffic. Resulting model structure is in accordance with structures of accident prediction models used in other EU countries and the US. Certain differences can be found in the degree of effects of particular model variables.
Keywords: accident prediction model, roundabout, negative binomial model.
Published: December 1, 2011 Show citation
References
- Centrum dopravního výzkumu, v.v.i., 2005. Metodický pokyn "Velké okru¾ní køi¾ovatky". Centrum dopravního výzkumu, v.v.i., Brno.
- CityPlan spol. s r. o., 2009. Pøíruèka pro navrhování okru¾ních køi¾ovatek [online]. c2009 [cit. 2011-06-22]. <http://www.cityplan.cz/index.php?id_document=1372>.
- Daniels, S., Brijs, T., Nuyts, E., Wets, G., 2010. Explaining variation in safety performance of roundabouts. Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 42, iss. 2, pp. 393 - 402.
Go to original source...
- Daniels, S., Brijs, T., Nuyts, E., Wets, G., 2011. Extended prediction models for crashes at roundabouts, Safety Science, vol. 49, iss. 2, pp. 198 - 207.
Go to original source...
- Eenink, R., Reurings, M., Elvik, R., Cardoso, J., Wichert, S., Stefan, C., 2008. Accident Prediction Models and Road Safety Impact Assessment: recommendations for using these tools [online]. c2008 [cit. 2011-06-22]. <http://ripcord.bast.de/pdf/RIPCORD-ISEREST-Deliverable-D2-Final.pdf>.
- Elvik, R., 2003. Effects on road safety of converting intersections to roundabouts: review of evidence from non-U.S. studies. Transportation Research Record, vol. 1847, pp. 1 - 10.
Go to original source...
- Freeman, M. F., Tukey, J. W., 1950. Transformations related to the angular and the square rood. Annals of Mathematical Statistics. Vol. 21, pp. 607 - 611.
Go to original source...
- iRAP, 2010. Road Safety Toolkit: Intersections [online]. c2010 [cit. 2011-06-22]. <http://toolkit.irap.org/default.asp?page=crashtype&id=8>.
- Kennedy, P., 2008. A Guide To Econometrics, 6th Edition. Blackwell Publishing, p. 246.
- Kmenta, J., 1986. Elements of Econometrics, 2nd Edition. Prentice Hall, pp. 175 - 183.
- Maycock, G., Summersgill, I., 1994. Methods for investigating the relationship between accidents and road design standards. Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.
- Ministry of Transport, 2005. Základní data pro výpoèty ekonomické efektivnosti silnièních a dálnièních staveb v investièních zámìrech s pou¾itím programu HDM-4 s kalibrovanými daty (CSHS) [online]. c2005 [cit. 2011-06-22]. <www.mdcr-vyzkum- infobanka.cz/DownloadFile/2010.aspx>.
- Persaud, B. N., Retting, R. A., Garder, P. E., Lord, D., 2001. Safety effect of roundabout conversions in the United States: Empirical Bayes observational before-after study. Transportation Research Record, vol. 1751, pp. 1 - 8.
Go to original source...
- Pokorný, P., 2011. Cost-benefit analysis of implementation of four-arm roundabouts in urban areas. Transactions on Transport Sciences, vol. 4, iss. 2 (in press).
Go to original source...
- Retting, R. A., Ulmer, R. G., Williams, A. F., 1999. Prevalence and characteristics of red light running crashes in the United States. Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 31, iss. 6, pp. 687 - 694.
Go to original source...
- Road and Motorway Directorate, 2005. Výhledové koeficienty rùstu dopravy pro období 2005 - 2040 pro dálnice a rychlostní silnice [online]. c2005 [cit. 2011-06-22]. <http://www.rsd.cz/rsd/rsd.nsf/0/d795e8881160bae5c1256e230048ef83/$FILE/P%C5%99%C3%ADloha%20D.doc>.
- Schoon, C., van Minnen, J., 1994. The Safety of Roundabouts in the Netherlands. Traffic Engineering and Control, vol. 35, iss. 3, pp. 142 - 148.
- Simonová, E., Hrubý, Z., 2004. BESIDIDO - Moderní úpravy komunikací ve mìstech a obcích pro zklidòování, vy¹¹í bezpeènost a estetickou úroveò. Silnièní obzor, vol. 65, iss. 5, pp. 132 - 133.
Go to original source...
- TRB, 1998. Modern Roundabout Practice in the United States: A Synthesis of Highway Practice (NCHRP Synthesis 264). Transportation Research Board and National Research Council, Washington, D. C. <http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_syn_264.pdf>.
- TRB, 2007. Roundabouts in the United States (NCHRP Report 572), Transportation Research Board, Washington, D. C. <http://trb.org/publications/nchrp/nchrp_rpt_572.pdf>.
- TRB, 2010. Roundabouts: An Informational Guide, Second Edition (NCHRP Report 672), Transportation Research Board, Washington, D. C. <http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_rpt_672.pdf>.
- Turner, S. A. Accident Prediction Models (Transfund New Zealand Research Report No. 192). Transfund NZ, Wellington.
- V-projekt, s.r.o., 2000. Projektování okru¾ních køi¾ovatek na silnicích a místních komunikacích (Technické podmínky 135). V-projekt, s.r.o., Ostrava.
- Zhang, Y., Ye, Z., Lord, D., 2007. Estimating the Dispersion Parameter of the Negative Binomial Distribution for Analyzing Crash Data Using a Bootstrapped Maximum Likelihood Method. Transportation Research Record, vol. 2019, pp. 15 - 19.
Go to original source...
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.